Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
