A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
